Wednesday, November 11, 2009

WARNING - Tidal Flooding expected in Strathmere Thursday & Friday

As the remnants of Hurricane Ida cross into the Atlantic and combine with another coastal low, there will be a tremendous amount of rain south of us.
As this combined low moves north, with counterclockwise winds, it will encounter a strong high pressure system over New England, which will block its movement north and itself generate clockwise winds. Together, these systems will produce sustained onshore winds of 25 to 35 mph for the next three days, creating high surf, beach erosion and back bay flooding. It is also expected to rain until Saturday, though not in the amounts south of us.

"Minor" tidal flooding is likely beginning late tonight and "moderate" tidal flooding is possible by week's end. Minor flooding can be a problem for us in Strathmere - moderate flooding can be considerably worse.
Minor tidal flooding is expected for the high tide cycles early on Thursday morning and late on Thursday afternoon. However, as tidal departures increase some moderate tidal flooding is possible during the high tide early on Friday morning. At that time, tide levels may reach or exceed 7.0 feet MLLW at Atlantic City, New Jersey. We begin to have flooding problems at 5.0 feet - 24 inches more than that on Friday morning can give us real problems! We suggest you take precautions and be sure cars, trash cans and other things susceptible to flooding are moved to a safe place.

Here are the "normal" high tides for this period (from here):

Predicted "Normal" High Tides:
Wednesday 11/11 3:14 pm 4.1 feet
Thursday 11/12 4:00 am 4.2 feet
                        4:13 pm 4.0 feet
Friday 11/13 4:52 am 4.5 feet
                    5:08 pm 4.0 feet
Saturday 11/14 5:40 am 4.7 feet
                     5:57 pm 3.9 feet
Monday 11/16 2:11 pm New Moon

Here is an interesting website to track predicted vs. observed tidal levels (go to "East", then go down the left side - north to south - and click on the number by Atlantic City):
The blue line shows the normal predicted tide levels. As the wind changed to the northeast last night, you can see the observed levels (in red) begin to exceed the predicted levels. The green line tracks the difference beween the two, or the "residual" level. It's this residual level we worry about. When the wind blows from the northeast and off the ocean, the water can't get out as the tide is supposed to go down. The longer this continues, the more the residual level builds up. If conditions occur as now predicted, that normal tide at 4:52 Friday morning could be close to seven feet!
Waves off our coast are forecast to build to around 15 feet or higher from tonight into the early part of the weekend. As a result, breakers along the coast may approach 7 or 8 feet with a good deal of beach erosion anticipated. A high surf advisory is in effect.

If you are not in Strathmere and have anything you would like secured, reply to this e-mail message and we'll see if we can help. Strathmere Improvement Association -

This notice is courtesy of the Strathmere Improvement Association.

Butch Vandegrift - President

Ken Weaver - Vice-President
Donna Diefenderfer - Treasurer
Debbie Vandegrift - Secretary

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